Trump v Harris: Swing State Polling
Overview of Polling Results
The data presents a snapshot between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, showcasing the results from several reputable polling firms, including Redfield & Wilton, InsiderAdvantage, Trafalgar Group (R), and KSTP/SurveyUSA. Each poll provides insight into how each candidate is performing in critical states.
The chart above shows the various collections of data sets per state. Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia have multiple sets.
Arizona
In Arizona, the polling results exhibit a narrow edge for Trump in two separate polls. According to Redfield & Wilton, Trump leads Harris by a slim margin of 1 percentage point (46% to 45%). Similarly, InsiderAdvantage reports a slightly larger margin, with Trump at 49% and Harris at 48%. This suggests a competitive race in Arizona, where Trump has a slight but consistent lead.
Nevada
Nevada presents a more varied picture. Redfield & Wilton shows the candidates tied at 47% each, indicating a highly competitive battleground. However, InsiderAdvantage’s poll shows Trump with a slight lead of 1 percentage point (48% to 47%). This disparity highlights the volatility in voter preferences in Nevada, a state crucial to both candidates' strategies.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, polling data from Redfield & Wilton and InsiderAdvantage both favor Trump, though by modest margins. Redfield & Wilton shows Trump leading by 1 percentage point (45% to 44%), while InsiderAdvantage reports a slightly larger lead of 1 percentage point (49% to 48%). This suggests that while Trump is currently ahead, the race remains competitive and subject to change.
Georgia
Georgia’s results are split between the polls. Redfield & Wilton indicates a 2-point lead for Trump (44% to 42%). On the other hand, InsiderAdvantage shows a tie, with both candidates at 48%. This inconsistency underscores Georgia’s importance and unpredictability in the electoral landscape.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, Trafalgar Group (R) shows Trump leading Harris by 2 percentage points (47% to 45%). This margin reflects Trump’s current advantage in a state known for its significant electoral votes and key swing status.
Michigan
Michigan’s results from Trafalgar Group (R) show a tied race, with both candidates receiving 47%. This tie indicates a highly competitive environment in Michigan, emphasizing its status as a critical swing state.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin, according to Trafalgar Group (R), shows Trump with a narrow lead of 1 percentage point (47% to 46%). This close margin highlights the state’s importance and the tight competition between the two candidates.
Minnesota
In contrast to the other states, Minnesota shows a clear lead for Harris. KSTP/SurveyUSA reports Harris leading Trump by 5 percentage points (48% to 43%). This significant margin suggests strong support for Harris in Minnesota, making it a favorable state for her campaign.
The polling data paints a nuanced picture of the 2024 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. While Trump currently holds slight leads or ties in several key battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, Harris shows a strong position in Minnesota. The variations in polling results underscore the dynamic nature of electoral contests and the importance of closely monitoring shifts in voter sentiment as the election approaches. Each state’s data provides valuable insights into the strategies and focus areas for both candidates, reflecting the competitive and ever-changing landscape of U.S. politics.