The Quinnipiac poll from August 2024 compares the performance of Donald Trump against Kamala Harris and Joe Biden across various demographics.
Overall, Biden performs better than Harris, with a margin of +10 compared to Harris’s +3. Among Republicans, Trump dominates with substantial leads of +79 against Harris and +82 against Biden. Democrats overwhelmingly prefer their candidates, with Biden slightly outpacing Harris. Independents lean towards Biden more (+10) than Harris (+4). Gender dynamics show Trump leading with men but losing to both women, with Biden having a stronger margin. Education plays a significant role, with college-educated whites favoring Harris by +39 and Biden by +31, while non-college-educated whites lean towards Trump.
Racial differences are evident, with Black voters strongly supporting Harris (+76) and Biden (+72). Younger voters (18-34) show a strong preference for Biden (+36), while Harris does better among middle-aged groups (35-49).
A note from the Atlantic Playbook:
In similar circumstances, since 1968, Democrats have lost every election when the polls are like this.
The Harris margin is -5.7 from Hillary in 2016, -6.6 from Biden in 2020, and worse than Kerry ‘04 & Dukakis ‘88.
Data: Quinnipiac
Visual: Atlantic Playbook