Trump & Harris, Trump & Biden Quinnipiac Margins

August 2024

The Quinnipiac poll from August 2024 compares the performance of Donald Trump against Kamala Harris and Joe Biden across various demographics.

Overall, Biden performs better than Harris, with a margin of +10 compared to Harris’s +3. Among Republicans, Trump dominates with substantial leads of +79 against Harris and +82 against Biden. Democrats overwhelmingly prefer their candidates, with Biden slightly outpacing Harris. Independents lean towards Biden more (+10) than Harris (+4). Gender dynamics show Trump leading with men but losing to both women, with Biden having a stronger margin. Education plays a significant role, with college-educated whites favoring Harris by +39 and Biden by +31, while non-college-educated whites lean towards Trump.

Racial differences are evident, with Black voters strongly supporting Harris (+76) and Biden (+72). Younger voters (18-34) show a strong preference for Biden (+36), while Harris does better among middle-aged groups (35-49).

A note from the Atlantic Playbook:

In similar circumstances, since 1968, Democrats have lost every election when the polls are like this.

The Harris margin is -5.7 from Hillary in 2016, -6.6 from Biden in 2020, and worse than Kerry ‘04 & Dukakis ‘88.

Data: Quinnipiac
Visual: Atlantic Playbook