The 13 Keys to the White House by Allan Lichtman
Key aspects to ponder during the 2024 presidential elections....
The Keys to the White House represents a forecasting framework used to predict the results of US presidential elections. Formulated in 1981 by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian mathematical geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, the theory was adapted from the Keilis-Borok system for earthquake forecasting. The thirteen-point checklist evaluates the state of the nation and its political landscape before a presidential election. If five or fewer criteria on the checklist are deemed inaccurate, the system forecasts victory for the nominee of the incumbent party. Take a look…
The 13 Keys
Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (RFK, Jr.?)
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.