Reform UK and the Battle Over Britain’s Future

Included is our podcast episode with Richard Tice MP from May 2024

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is positioning itself as the next major disruptor in British politics. With just a handful of MPs, the party has managed to dominate the media cycle, challenging both Labour and the Conservatives with a message aimed squarely at disillusioned voters. Farage has a proven track record of shaking up British politics, having played a pivotal role in delivering the Brexit referendum. Now, he sees a fresh opportunity to remake British politics, building from the ashes of UKIP and tapping into frustration with the post-Brexit establishment.

Reform UK’s rise is directly tied to the failures of traditional parties. Labour, under Keir Starmer, has alienated its core working-class base by embracing an out-of-touch progressive agenda. Instead of focusing on economic revitalization and public services, Starmer’s leadership has been marked by dithering and equivocation, appearing more concerned with optics than outcomes. His policies resonate in London’s chattering classes, but they fall flat across the country, where voters are looking for bold solutions to economic stagnation.

Starmer’s approach to taxation has been particularly damaging to Britain’s rural communities. His government’s plans to increase inheritance tax liabilities on farmland and agricultural assets have sparked widespread anger among farmers, who see these policies as punishing those working to preserve Britain’s agricultural legacy. Inheritance tax has long been a contentious issue in rural areas, where family farms are passed down through generations. Reform UK has an opportunity to capitalize on this discontent by offering policies that protect rural livelihoods and champion the agricultural sector—an industry that feels increasingly abandoned by both Labour and the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are exhausted. After more than a decade in power, they’ve run out of ideas, leaving voters disillusioned and distrustful. Both major parties have lost touch with reality, unable—or unwilling—to address core issues like immigration control, national sovereignty, and economic decline. Farage has seized on this political vacuum with a simple but powerful message: Britain is broken, and the only way to fix it is by dismantling the current system.

Reform UK’s platform focuses on tax reform, immigration control, and restoring sovereignty—issues that resonate with communities who feel ignored by the metropolitan political class, particularly those disillusioned with traditional party politics and seeking a more direct voice in decision-making.

Founded as the Brexit Party in 2019, Reform has had four leaders—Catherine Blaiklock, Nigel Farage (serving two terms), and Richard Tice—and currently has five MPs: Lee Anderson (Ashfield), Nigel Farage (Clacton), Richard Tice (Boston and Skegness), Rupert Lowe (Great Yarmouth), and James McMurdock (South Basildon and East Thurrock), marking its first parliamentary presence following the 2024 general election.

Across Europe, populist and conservative parties are rising rapidly. In some countries, the Right is already in power. In others, it’s gaining ground. France remains in political flux, but elsewhere the shift is unmistakable. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has led a national conservative government through Fidesz for over a decade, promoting sovereignty and cultural preservation. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni governs with an unflinching right-wing agenda focused on national identity and economic freedom. Poland’s Law and Justice Party (PiS) continues to shape the country’s policies around traditional values. The nationalist Sweden Democrats play a key role in Sweden’s government, while Finland’s Finns Party has gained significant influence. Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ) is making a comeback in the polls, positioning itself for a return to power. The Netherlands recently saw Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom secure a key role in government, and in Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is polling as the second-largest party nationally, signaling a potential rightward shift in Europe’s largest economy.

This growing movement reflects a broader rejection of progressive orthodoxy. Many of the free market leaders over the past decade were merely cult of personality types used in part as a facade to shield the emptiness behind the rhetoric. Now that's ending. Across Europe, voters are rejecting open-border policies, overregulation, and technocratic governance. Reform UK taps into this sentiment, echoing many of the themes that have fueled Donald Trump’s success in the United States: anti-establishment rhetoric, national sovereignty, and economic nationalism. Just as Trump’s “America First” agenda resonated with disaffected voters, Farage’s promise to “take back control” is striking a chord with Britons who feel left behind.

One of the more intriguing twists in Reform UK’s rise has been the brewing scuffle between Farage and Elon Musk. The billionaire’s rumored interest in financially supporting Reform UK has sparked significant media attention, but Musk’s involvement is a double-edged sword. His bombastic rhetoric, describing the UK as a “tyrannical police state” and predicting civil war, taps into growing discontent, but it also risks alienating mainstream voters.

Farage has wisely distanced himself from Musk’s more inflammatory remarks. While Musk is undoubtedly a brilliant, once-in-a-generation business mind, his chaotic commentary doesn’t align with the pragmatic, voter-focused message Reform UK needs to succeed. The party’s target audience isn’t fringe conspiracy theorists; it’s disillusioned Labour and Conservative voters seeking a credible alternative. Handled correctly, the Musk-Farage dynamic could work in Reform UK’s favor. Farage can benefit from the media attention Musk brings without being drawn into his more extreme views. Musk aside, Reform UK enjoys the backing of prominent figures like Nick Candy, the British property tycoon. Serious players take the party seriously.

As PoliticsHome reported on January 4, 2025, 96% of Reform UK members want leaders who “aren’t afraid of stirring up controversy,” and 71% actively promote the party online—the highest engagement rate of any British political party. The challenge now is whether digital activism can translate into votes.

Back in Britain, Reform UK has the potential to become a permanent fixture in the political landscape. However, to achieve long-term success, the party must broaden its appeal beyond disaffected Conservatives. At present, Reform risks being seen as a protest party for frustrated fringe voters. To win over the middle ground, Reform must offer a compelling vision for the future that addresses the concerns of working-class voters and the middle class alike. This means moving beyond Brexit nostalgia and presenting pragmatic policies on economic revitalization, public services, and national security.

The rise of the Right isn’t simply a reaction to the failures of liberal democracy. It reflects a deeper reassertion of foundational values—personal responsibility, cultural preservation, and the belief that prosperity is earned, not handed down by the state. These values have proven essential for thriving free-market democracies.

Reform UK is poised to capitalize on this realignment. Whether Farage can broaden the party’s appeal and present a compelling, forward-looking vision will determine whether Reform becomes a permanent fixture in British politics or fades as a protest movement.

Looking at the political landscape today, it’s clear that the future belongs to those willing to challenge the failures of the past. The Right is not a protest movement—it’s becoming the natural governing force across Western democracies. Reform UK is poised to be a key component in this transformation. The question is no longer whether the Right will shape the future—but how deeply it will transform the political order in Britain and beyond.

Here's an AP podcast episode from May 2024 with Richard Tice