I don’t normally talk about war or defense, but here goes…
The US political establishment has been incensed by the mere suggestion of withdrawing from NATO. Given Trump's previous statements, his recent remarks about leaving NATO are not particularly shocking. However, his comments regarding Russia and NATO certainly were.
Is withdrawing from NATO a wise decision? I support a closer relationship between the US and Europe, and I fail to comprehend the rationale behind leaving NATO—especially considering the significant financial contribution made by the US, which should theoretically give the U.S. tremendous influence within the bloc. Let's delve into this further.
One glaring issue with NATO is that not all member countries fulfill their agreed-upon financial commitments. This is probably the biggest issue at hand: the lack of consistent and equitable budget-sharing among NATO members.
Despite commitments to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense, many member countries fall short of this target, placing a disproportionate burden on a few allies, notably the United States. This imbalance undermines NATO's collective defense capabilities, it also strains the alliance's cohesion.
NATO also faces challenges related to political cohesion and strategic direction. Member states may have differing priorities and threat perceptions, making it difficult to forge consensus on key issues such as defense spending, troop deployments, and strategic partnerships.
As stated, member states have agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP on their own militaries.
In 2023, the expectation was that 11 out of the 31 NATO member countries would achieve that goal.
“Just 50% of Republicans believe the U.S. benefits from transatlantic alliances, compared to 80% of Democrats and 63% of independents,” noted an October 2023 poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
Warfare comes with a hefty price tag. According to the Center for Eastern Studies (OSW) in Warsaw, the annual production output of 155-mm artillery ammunition in Europe's largest plants typically ranges between 20,000 and 30,000 pieces. However, Ukraine's usage surpasses these figures, with estimates suggesting they expend between 25,000 and 40,000 pieces of such ammunition every week.
How much money is required? Daniel Fiott, Head of the Defence and Statecraft Programme at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS), pointed out that Germany's €100-billion "special fund" for its armed forces, eroded by inflation, has proven insufficient for a single member state. Moreover, even with new sources of investment through the European Investment Bank (EIB), it wouldn't suffice. If the US were to withdraw from NATO, Europe would require a continuous influx of funds, likely in the ballpark of half a trillion dollars or more. For context, NATO's annual budget stands at around $2.5 billion USD.
There are other issues. According to Chatham House on the US commitment to Europe's defense. ...
The nuclear commitment.
Moving beyond the containment of Russia. Perhaps the most challenging issue is deciding what the collective political end state should be.
The future of enlargement.
A Global NATO.
Something to note: Congress passed “The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024,” ratified on December 22, 2023, bars the US President from withdrawing from NATO without the consent of either a two-thirds Senate super-majority or an act of Congress.