France’s New PM to Steer Macron’s Legacy to the Right

Macronism and the progressive trend in French politics will undoubtedly change

I admit, I am quite pleased with the choice of Barnier as PM. I also believe that Michel Barnier as France’s PM signals a clear shift - that was long overdue - within Macronism. As a veteran of the center-right Les Républicains party, Barnier shares some common ground with Macron—both are technocrats with pro-European views—but his leadership will appeal to conservative voters frustrated with Macron’s progressive reforms. Yes, Barnier is undeniably part of the political establishment, but his time as prime minister will likely see a pivot toward traditional conservative values, reflecting voters very clear desires. Even Le Monde has called Barnier “a prime minister at the mercy of the far right” and stated that his selection is “the least worst solution."

Macron had asked Barnier to "form a unifying government to serve the country," the Elysée said at midday on Thursday. - Le Monde

Under Barnier, expect a recalibration of Macron’s centrist policies on immigration, law and order, and national identity. His commitment to the EU won’t waver, and he’ll likely continue Macron’s pro-European agenda. Still, domestically, Barnier’s policies will almost certainly lean further right, aligning with the broader conservative trend sweeping France and Europe.

The Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) - the current left wing coalition - has stated they intended to vote against Barnier, and this move places even more power into the hands of Le Pen and her party. Le Pen, ever the populist, isn’t going to let this slide without a fight. She’ll argue that Barnier’s conservative shift is too little, too late. She will claim that his policies won’t go far enough to fix the deeper issues facing France, continuing to position herself as the real alternative to the establishment. Her strategy will be to capitalize on Barnier’s perceived caution, insisting that only her far-right platform offers the kind of radical change the country truly needs. She will keep him under a tight watch. Still, Let Pen and her coalition are supporting Barnier, and while he will be in a fishbowl, there is a real chance “to get things done,” as we say in America. No one likes to see political gridlock.

In theory, this also leaves Barnier walking a thin line. He has to adopt enough conservative policies to stop Le Pen from gaining more ground while maintaining France’s role in the EU and keeping Macron’s centrist base on board. He also needs to ensure that he is effective and stays in office. If he manages to strike that balance, and survive, Barnier could successfully steer France in a direction that addresses national concerns without sacrificing its European commitments.

Despite some nationwide protests against Barnier, the reality is that France has already moved to the right. Immigration, security, and national identity have become central issues, and the electorate is demanding a tougher approach. This rightward shift is necessary. Barnier’s leadership marks a step in the right direction, and let's hope it will stabilize the country by addressing critical concerns that Macron has overlooked.

BTW..Michel Barnier’s book, “My Secret Brexit Diary," is also one of my favorite Brexit books. If interested in Brexit, you should give it a read. He was the lead negotiator.