Analysis: Will France's Far-Right Win An Absolute Majority Today?

If RN does not sweep the election will we see a coalition between the RN and the Gaullists?

Will France’s far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National or RN) party will win an absolute majority? Centrists hope for a hung parliament, and leftists promise protests. Security is on standby, ready to deploy up to 30,000 police to quell election rioting and violence.

Historically, the RN, formerly known as the Front National, has struggled to secure a majority. Despite significant gains in European Parliament elections and local elections, the RN has not been able to translate this into national success. This pattern suggests a persistent challenge for the party in expanding its influence to a broader electorate.

The political climate in France has become increasingly polarized, with growing disillusionment toward the traditional parties (a theme noted across the Western world). This environment has greatly benefited the RN.

The RN has garnered support by focusing on issues such as immigration, national identity, and security, which resonate with a significant portion of the electorate. However, their controversial positions and perceived extremism alienate many voters, particularly in urban and diverse areas. The party’s base is strong in rural and economically disadvantaged regions, but achieving an absolute majority requires broader appeal across different demographics and regions.

Recent developments, such as economic challenges, security concerns, and social unrest, have bolstered the RN. These issues have provided fertile ground for the party’s messaging and have helped it gain traction among voters frustrated with the status quo. However, to achieve an absolute majority, the RN must overcome entrenched resistance from other political factions and broaden its appeal beyond its traditional base.

Marine Le Pen’s ability to rebrand and modernize the party has helped it shed some of its more extreme associations and appeal to a wider audience. She has consistently emphasized national sovereignty, tighter immigration controls, and a strong stance on law and order.

A significant figure to watch in the potential government is the new Prime Minister candidate proposed by the RN, Jordan Bardella. 28 years old and known for a tough stance on national issues and alignment with Le Pen’s vision, he represents a shift towards more stringent policies on immigration and national security.

The RN’s strategy going forward will be critical. To achieve an absolute majority, the party will need to build alliances and possibly form coalitions with other political groups. This could be challenging, given the deep-seated ideological differences between the RN and many other parties. However, if successful, such alliances could help the RN overcome the obstacles it faces in securing broader support.

The electoral system in France also plays a significant role. The two-round system used in legislative elections tends to favor larger, more established parties and can be a hurdle for parties like the RN. While the RN has made significant strides in recent years, translating this support into an absolute majority in the National Assembly remains a formidable challenge.

If the RN does not secure an absolute majority, they would likely enjoy a relative majority and then need to form a coalition to push forward their agenda, as we have seen throughout the rest of continental Europe. If the RN does not win an absolute majority, will we see a coalition between the RN and the Gaullists?

- Atlantic Playbook